Midterm headwinds are battering President Donald Trump as Democratic primary voters turn out in numbers that dwarf previous cycles, raising alarms among Republicans about what lies ahead this November.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten told anchor Kaitlan Collins during an Aug. 13, 2026, appearance on “The Source” that Democratic primary participation has reached what he termed “absolutely bonkers huge” levels. More than 25 million Democratic ballots have been cast so far this cycle, eclipsing the 23 million recorded across the entire 2018 primary season—a year Democrats ultimately captured substantial House gains.
Enten warned on Aug. 13, 2026, that Trump is “deeply underwater” with voters and that White House officials should be “running scared” as the data points to a November bloodbath for the GOP.
Republicans currently enjoy a 219-212 advantage in the House and control the Senate 53-47, but forecasters across the board anticipate severe headwinds for the party in both chambers. Voters will determine control of all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships.
Since 2006, the party that generated higher primary turnout has consistently won the House, Enten noted. Collins pointed out that Trump himself has previously cited the analyst’s work, then asked what Enten would be thinking if he occupied a desk inside the Trump White House.
Enten responded that surging Democratic participation signals a deeply unpopular president, though he cautioned Democrats still face their own challenges. He pointed to Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s minus-13 percent net favorability rating, contrasted with Iowa candidate Josh Turek’s plus-18 percent standing.
Historic Southern Gains Within Democratic Reach
Also on Thursday, Enten highlighted polling that shows Democrats ahead in three Southern Senate races that would mark stunning breakthroughs. Sen. Jon Ossoff leads in his Georgia re-election bid, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper tops his Republican rival, and Texas candidate James Talarico runs ahead of his GOP opponent.
North Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 2008, while Texas has not sent a Democrat to the upper chamber since 1988. The current environment represents a potentially historic shift across the region.
Fuel Costs and Iran Conflict Crater Presidential Approval
Another set of polling figures examined by Enten this week reveals catastrophic presidential numbers on pocketbook concerns. According to AAA, gasoline stood at $4.0776 per gallon on Friday, up from approximately $3 before the administration’s Iran conflict began. Trump’s disapproval rating on fuel costs has hit 79 percent—exceeding the previous records set by former President Joe Biden at 72 percent, former President Barack Obama at 68 percent, and former President George W. Bush at 75 percent.
Enten said “no president has been hated more when it comes to gas prices,” noting that even 66 percent of GOP working-class voters—the president’s core constituency—disapprove of price increases under his administration.
The Iran conflict has inflicted additional wounds. Among highly motivated voters, Trump’s approval on Iran dropped 24 points between July 2024 and July 2026, falling from 53 percent to 29 percent. Only 27 percent of all voters expect the U.S. to secure a favorable agreement with Iran, and even among Republicans just 41 percent anticipate success. White House spokesperson Kush Desai insisted oil prices will decline once the administration resolves matters with Iran, but political harm continues mounting.
The crisis has obliterated a longstanding Republican edge. A Reuters/Ipsos survey from January 2025 showed the GOP with an 18-point advantage over Democrats on handling military confrontations and terrorism issues. That margin has flipped to a two-point Democratic advantage—a 20-point reversal in under two years.
Non-College Voters Abandon the MAGA Movement
The damage extends deep into Trump’s original electoral coalition. Enten reported on Aug. 7 that Americans lacking college degrees—the demographic foundation of Trump’s two presidential wins—have turned sharply against the MAGA brand. Net approval of the movement among non-college adults plummeted from plus six percentage points last October to minus 22 points, a 28-point deterioration.
Trump won non-college voters over Kamala Harris by a 13-point margin in 2024, yet his current mean net approval rating among this demographic has plunged to minus 19 points—a 32-point reversal. Republicans held a 13-point edge with non-college voters immediately after the 2024 election; Democrats now lead by one point in averaged polling.
GOP strategist David Winston conceded the danger, stating that if Democrats maintain economic advantages and capture double-digit margins among independents, a blue wave could materialize. With the midterms closing in, the data offers scant reassurance to a White House already preparing for a brutal fall.
