With gas prices hovering above $4 per gallon and public support for military action against Iran plummeting, NewsNation correspondent-at-large Geraldo Rivera says Republicans are headed for a political catastrophe in the 2026 midterm elections.
The veteran broadcaster’s warning, delivered April 15 on NewsNation’s “The Daily Take,” comes as an Ipsos poll shows just 24% of Americans think the Iran war has been worth the costs, compared to 51% who say it hasn’t. Rivera told host Connell McShane that continued conflict and high fuel prices could trigger what he called a “revolution” against GOP candidates.
“I think if the war persists, and if the price of gas stays where it is or goes higher, there will be a stampede in the midterm elections,” Rivera told host Connell McShane. “I think the cost politically to the president will be profound. I think Republicans will be reeling from a revolution.”
Rivera’s sharp criticism represents a dramatic shift from his stance just days earlier. On April 7, he appeared on “TMZ Live” to discuss Trump’s Iran strategy with a far more supportive tone, calling the president’s threat to end Iran’s civilization “exaggerated” while expressing confidence that the Department of War wouldn’t authorize civilian target strikes or nuclear weapons deployment.
The former Trump ally, who worked alongside the president on “Celebrity Apprentice,” now sees the administration’s Iran policy as a fundamental betrayal of campaign promises. Rivera emphasized that Trump secured his 2024 victory partly by pledging “no more forever wars” to his MAGA base, a commitment now contradicted by the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Economic pain at the pump has become the most politically toxic element of Trump’s Iran blockade strategy. While the president’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz aims to economically strangle Iran into submission, American consumers are suffering the consequences through sustained high gas prices. McShane acknowledged during the segment that even if the blockade succeeds in forcing Iran to accept Trump’s terms, public patience appears exhausted.
The Ipsos survey data displayed during Rivera’s appearance shows widespread disapproval of the military campaign. When respondents were asked to complete the statement “Considering the cost and benefits, the Iran War has been…,” a majority answered “not worth U.S. military action,” reflecting deep skepticism about both the conflict’s strategic value and its domestic economic impact.
Political damage to Trump and congressional Republicans is already visible in polling data. A CNN survey revealed that strong approval of Trump’s performance among Republicans dropped from 52% in January to 43% by April, while his economic approval rating within the party fell 14 points during the same timeframe. Independent voters, critical to competitive House and Senate races, show even steeper declines.
Rivera’s comments came as Trump and Israel continued military operations against Iran, with the president having imposed an 8 p.m. ceasefire deadline that included threats to bomb power plants and other critical infrastructure. Though a two-week ceasefire was eventually announced, disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue hammering global energy markets.
The situation has deteriorated further since Rivera’s warning. On April 18, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it, demanding the U.S. lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports before allowing commercial shipping to resume. Trump responded from the Oval Office by saying Iran had gotten “a little cute” and warning that if negotiations fail before the April 21 ceasefire expiration, “we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.”
Rivera’s forecast of electoral disaster carries particular significance given his long history within Trump’s political orbit and his understanding of MAGA base priorities. His prediction that Republicans could face a voter “stampede” represents one of the bleakest assessments yet from someone formerly aligned with the administration, suggesting the president’s trademark combative style may prove insufficient to overcome economic frustration if conditions don’t rapidly improve.
As the ceasefire deadline approaches with no diplomatic breakthrough in sight and gas prices showing no relief, the 2026 midterms are shaping up as a potential referendum on Trump’s Iran policy and its punishing consequences for American consumers. Rivera’s warning has only grown more urgent as the renewed closure of the Strait threatens to push fuel costs even higher just months before voters head to the polls.
