President Donald Trump said he is close to deciding whether to relaunch large-scale military action against Iran, telling Axios in an interview on Thursday, September 17, 2026, that a far more aggressive phase of the war has not been ruled out. “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It’s a big decision. Anything could happen with me,” he said.
He declined to say whether that call comes before or after the U.S. midterm elections in November. The American military campaign against Iran, Operation Epic Fury, opened on February 28 and has now run into its seventh month.
Trump carried the same warning to the podium at the United Nations General Assembly general debate in New York on September 22, where he spoke second, after Brazil. Calling Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, he said: “One thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror … to have a nuclear weapon.” He also said Iran had developed missiles able to reach Europe, and he pressed European governments to recognize the threat.
In a post on X, Trump was quoted telling the United Nations that he has a “BIG DECISION TO MAKE” on Iran. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterms. WHAT THEY DON’T REALIZE IS I’M NOT RUNNING!” he said.
A Meeting With Six Gulf Leaders
Trump’s comments to Axios landed days ahead of a session he is expected to hold on Tuesday, September 22, with the leaders of six Gulf states during the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are all on the guest list. What comes out of those talks is expected to set the war’s direction — either a return to broad military action or another run at diplomacy.
Those governments have a great deal riding on the answer. In early August, Trump shelved a return to major combat operations after Saudi Arabia and Qatar warned that Tehran could hit Gulf oil and gas facilities in response. Saudi Arabia is also fending off a growing campaign of missile and drone strikes launched by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.
A Different Message a Day Earlier
The tone was markedly different on Wednesday, September 16. “Hopefully we’re toward the end of the war. They want to make a deal. We’ll see how that works out,” he told reporters. Asked whether contact with Tehran was running through intermediaries, he said the two governments deal directly.
At a rally later that day at Gastonia Municipal Airport in Gastonia, North Carolina, Trump appeared alongside North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley and said Iran cannot keep going and that the fighting would end soon. “You watch what’s gonna happen to Iran. It’s gonna be a really good conclusion,” he said.
Back on Wednesday, September 9, he had predicted that the fighting would end “immediately after” the midterm elections because Iran “can’t hold out any longer,” and indicated that any eventual agreement would reach well past the nuclear limits that dominated earlier talks. “I’m doing much more than a nuclear deal. There’s a lot more than nuclear,” he said.
Blockade, Sanctions and Force Levels
While holding off on a new offensive, Washington has kept its naval blockade of Iranian ports in place and widened economic sanctions on Tehran. “Not one ship has gone to Iran since we started. They tried, and we blew them up,” Trump said.
The military has also worked to reopen shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. With U.S. military assistance, more than 900 million barrels of crude moved through the waterway between early May and September 16. “The strait is open. Those lanes are open. And that is why commercial vessels continue to flow through them,” CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said. A senior Iranian official offered a competing account on September 22, saying Iran could reopen the strait to Gulf shipping within seven days if the U.S. eased military pressure and lifted the blockade on Iranian ports. “The UN General Assembly is a golden opportunity for the US to return to diplomacy,” the official said.
Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth have directed U.S. forces in the Middle East to hold at current strength through the end of the year, so that they can resume full-scale combat if ordered.
Negotiations with Iran are in the hands of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, though Tehran has signaled it would rather deal with Vice President JD Vance. No face-to-face Iran–U.S. meetings are known to have taken place since July, when an interim deal to end the war signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian collapsed weeks after signing.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Saturday, September 19, that Tehran had sent its terms to Washington through Qatar: an end to the war on all fronts, the release of frozen Iranian funds and an end to the naval blockade. “Trump’s threats will not achieve any results. We are prepared for a decisive war,” he said.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, who headed Iran’s negotiating team at previous talks, said on September 22 that Iran would never surrender.
Gas and oil prices have climbed during the war, and Trump has brushed off the concerns ahead of the November midterms. “It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done. Remember that. It’s a little more,” he told the Gastonia crowd on September 16, adding that prices were going to “come tumbling down.”
Both capitals hinted on September 22 at a revival of negotiations, with Trump and Pezeshkian both due at the United Nations General Assembly — the first such gathering since Operation Epic Fury began. Trump said on Sunday, September 20, that he would be open to meeting the Iranian president. A senior Iranian official said no direct meeting was planned, but that Iran’s delegation had full authority to revive talks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC’s “Today” on September 22 that the U.S. was open to speaking with the Iranians, “especially if it has the prospects of leading to something positive.” On Fox and Friends, he said: “The central issue here is Iran is run by lunatic clerics,” noting Pezeshkian is subordinate to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Planning for What Comes After
Inside the White House, an early-stage post-war strategy is taking shape around a regional effort to contain Iran and a broader push to normalize relations between Israel and its neighbors. Two votes are shaping that planning: Israel’s election on October 27 and the U.S. midterms in November.
Other pieces moved into place before the General Assembly. The State Department cleared a potential foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of 48 F-35 Lightning II aircraft and related equipment, a package valued at $24.3 billion. Pezeshkian has also been granted a visa for the New York session, as have Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other high-ranking officials from Tehran.
