Comedian Bill Maher issued a stark message to Democrats while hosting Vice President JD Vance on “Real Time” on June 26: even if they cruise to victory in the 2026 midterms, his vote in 2028 isn’t guaranteed to stay blue. Vance made history as the first sitting vice president to appear on the HBO program, ostensibly to promote his new book “Communion” about his faith, but the conversation shifted quickly to Iran, immigration enforcement and Maher’s mounting frustration with his own party.
Maher challenged Vance aggressively on the administration’s claims about Iran’s nuclear program, disputing the vice president’s assertion that enrichment capability had been effectively destroyed. Vance cited President Donald Trump, who said at the G7 that oil had dropped to $73 a barrel as evidence negotiations were succeeding, and insisted Iran’s uranium enrichment was eliminated. When Maher pressed for details on verification without inspectors collecting physical evidence, Vance repeated the word “functionally” without offering specifics.
The host also pushed Vance to acknowledge that ICE operations went too far — not demanding an apology, just recognition. Vance refused, arguing that law enforcement operations of that scale inevitably produce difficult moments and no clean approach existed.
A Vote Up for Grabs
The interview’s most striking revelation came when Maher told Vance the 2028 Republican nominee would likely be either Vance himself or Marco Rubio, and that Democrats shouldn’t assume they have his vote. He has attacked what he views as the party’s fixation on Israel, its tolerance of antisemitism in activist circles, its skepticism toward capitalism, and its positions on incarceration. If the party continues moving in that direction, he said, his 2028 vote is genuinely in play.
Just one day before the “Real Time” taping, Vance had visited the Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in California, where he defended former President Richard Nixon’s legacy and minimized the Watergate scandal. He told attendees, “If Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12-hour news story.” The remark stands out coming from someone who, before joining Trump’s ticket, compared President Trump to Hitler.
Democrats “Cannot Help but Win” — With Caveats
Despite his warnings about 2028, Maher declared on his “Club Random” podcast on Monday, June 8, 2026, that Democrats “cannot help but win” the midterm elections, with comedian Jeff Dunham sitting across from him barely believing it. “Even they can’t blow it,” he added with a laugh.
His forecast centered on Trump’s collapsing approval ratings. According to Maher, the president has experienced a historic decline in public support, with even his core voters turning against him due to the Iran conflict. “They did not like the [Iran] war,” he said. Maher acknowledged he initially supported Trump’s decision to eliminate Iran’s supreme leader, but once the anticipated internal uprising in Iran failed to occur, his backing for continued military pressure disappeared. He expressed relief that Trump shifted to naval blockades instead of pursuing a full campaign to destroy the country.
His remarks came a day after Trump told Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst that an agreement with Iran could be finalized within days.
Yet Maher cautioned that democratic socialist candidates winning Democratic primaries could still hand Republicans an opening they shouldn’t have. The math favors Democrats. The environment favors Democrats. Maher just doesn’t fully trust Democrats to stay out of their own way.
Grudging Credit for Trump
What made Maher’s “Club Random” appearance unusual wasn’t the midterm forecast — it was the sustained, if grudging, credit he extended to Trump. He said Trump possesses a knack for identifying problems other politicians avoid, issues regular Americans actually notice. The “insanity festering” on college campuses was one example. Maher insisted no amount of revisionism could make him unsee the cultural shift among college students in recent years. He called Trump correct about illegal immigration representing a genuine crisis.
But then he pivoted. Trump, Maher contended, took a legitimate problem and botched the response by directing ICE enforcement at American cities in ways Maher described as “unconstitutional and way too cruel.” The immigration issue didn’t fail because Trump misidentified it, Maher argued. It failed because the execution was excessive, reckless, and politically self-destructive.
