Matt Towery, a pollster who has been one of President Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters since urging him to run in 2014, issued a stark warning about Republican prospects on June 1, 2026, telling Fox News that GOP turnout is collapsing in Georgia — and the party may be running out of time to fix it.
The former Georgia state representative, whose polling firm accurately called Trump’s 2016 upset over Hillary Clinton, used his appearance on “Hannity” to sound the alarm about troubling numbers emerging from the state Trump won by just two points in 2024. His candid assessment stunned viewers accustomed to hearing Towery deliver optimistic takes on the MAGA movement.
When Sean Hannity pressed Towery to name the GOP’s strongest “pickup opportunities” for the midterms, the pollster declined to offer rosy predictions.
“I am concerned about one thing. And that is Republican turnout,” Towery said, zeroing in on Georgia as his chief worry.
Georgia Numbers Set Off Alarm Bells
Georgia’s May 2026 primary delivered a historic shock: more than 1.1 million Democratic ballots were cast versus roughly 941,000 Republican ballots, marking the first time Democrats outpaced Republicans in a Georgia gubernatorial primary since 2006, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. Democrats also built a 150,000-vote lead during the early voting period — a stunning reversal from 2022, when Republicans enjoyed a 15-percentage-point early-voting advantage.
“That is not a good sign to me,” Towery told Hannity. Gov. Brian Kemp, who is term-limited and will not appear on the ballot, separately voiced his own alarm. “I’m definitely concerned,” Kemp told reporters, adding that he believed many voters remained “truly undecided” across the Senate and downballot races.
The stakes in Georgia could hardly be higher. All 14 of the state’s U.S. House seats are up for grabs — nine currently held by Republicans and five by Democrats. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for re-election and will face either Rep. Mike Collins or former football coach Derek Dooley, who are headed to a GOP runoff scheduled for June 19. Polls currently put Collins ahead.
The governor’s race features former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms as the Democratic nominee, while Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and healthcare executive Rick Jackson advance to a Republican runoff on June 16.
A Brutal Polling Landscape
National polling suggests Republicans face headwinds far beyond Georgia. The latest New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading Republicans 50 percent to 39 percent in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters. The same survey found Trump’s approval rating at just 37 percent. Only 30 percent of voters said launching the war in Iran was the right decision, and 64 percent disapproved of how the administration has handled the economy.
A Fox News national survey from May 2026 revealed that even a slim 51 percent majority of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation. Surveys have also shown some of Trump’s most reliable supporters — non-college-educated white voters and Latinos — drifting away.
Trump, for his part, has dismissed concerns over rising gas prices and spent much of the past several months promoting his $400 million White House ballroom. Republican strategist Whit Ayres recently told the New York Times that the president has drifted from the issues that powered his comeback.
“The president was elected to juice the economy, to bring down inflation, to stop illegal immigration and to get away from woke culture,” Ayres said. He also blasted what he called a $1.776 billion “weaponization slush fund” as a “whole new level of brazenness,” and warned: “If his highest goal were to maintain control of Congress, he would not be doing what he is doing.”
A Loyalist Losing the Faith
Towery’s alarm carries particular weight given his track record as a Trump champion. He pushed Trump to seek the presidency back in 2014, citing the businessman’s “star power.” He correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory when few others did, and he forecast another Trump win in 2020 by arguing pollsters were overlooking “the average guy on the street.” (Trump lost that contest to Joe Biden before reclaiming the White House in 2024.)
Now, even Towery is raising red flags. He urged the GOP to immediately begin promoting Trump’s accomplishments, warning that delay would prove fatal.
“But you don’t hear about it, and I think Republicans need to start making that case whether they have to buy ads or whatever, right now, because it’ll be too late in October and November,” he said.
Primary Purges and General Election Peril
Trump has continued to flex his muscle inside the GOP, even knocking off internal critics like Rep. Thomas Massie, one of his loudest Republican opponents, who lost his Kentucky primary to a Trump-backed challenger. But strategists warn that primary dominance does not translate into general election strength.
“It’s true, you can take out Republicans in primaries, but Republicans are going to be very vulnerable this fall,” Ayres said, describing a growing phenomenon on the right he labeled “Trump Disappointment Syndrome.”
For Towery — the man who saw Trump’s political future before almost anyone — the message to Republicans was unmistakable: the clock is ticking, and the numbers in Georgia suggest it may already be later than the party realizes.
