Notable TV host Bill Maher of HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher” has boldly predicted a loss for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. His statement comes at a time when Americans are growing increasingly worried about the forthcoming election, as recent polls reveal a closely contested race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Maher made this prediction during his show, surprising his guest panelists, Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari, writer Fran Lebowitz, and political consultant Ian Bremmer, with his unwavering certainty about the election outcome.
Maher expressed no worry over the upcoming election, stating, “No, not at all. Yeah, no, no, no, he’s definitely going to lose. You just feel it.”
Despite Maher’s confidence, recent survey results paint a different picture. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted in September indicates that 67% of Americans feel anxious about the upcoming election. Of these, 31% feel very anxious, and 36% feel somewhat anxious.
The reasons for this anxiety are diverse: 64% of respondents are concerned about the election’s impact on the economy, 60% are apprehensive about potential political violence, 48% worry about the acceptance of the election results, and 39% fear the possibility of the election being stolen.
Contrasting Maher’s confidence, recent poll data suggest a neck-and-neck race. A New York Times/Siena College poll also conducted in September showed Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally. The poll also indicated a tight race in key battleground states, presenting both candidates with a chance for victory.
Trump appeared to be showing strength in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The same New York Times/Siena College polls suggested that Trump leads Harris by 50% to 45% in Arizona, with a 4-point lead in Georgia and a 3-point lead in North Carolina.
However, Harris seems to have a slight advantage in other critical swing states. The same poll shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan among likely voters.
According to a Pew Research Center survey, the economy remains a top voter concern, with 81% of registered voters stating it will significantly influence their vote. Other crucial issues for Harris supporters include healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, and abortion, whereas Trump supporters prioritize immigration and violent crime alongside the economy.
The division over election integrity has also widened. A Gallup poll shows a record-high 56-percentage-point gap between Democrats and Republicans in their confidence in accurate vote casting and counting. While 84% of Democrats expressed trust in the accuracy of the vote, only 28% of Republicans shared this confidence.
Maher, who has previously identified himself as a “Trump alarmist,” states that his past skepticism lends him credibility in predicting this outcome. “I’ve already put my marker down on that,” Maher said, further expressing his assurance of the election result, regardless of closely contested polls leading up to election day.
However, Maher’s confidence is not universally shared. GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson challenges his certainty, pointing out that Trump remains competitive in battleground states despite voters’ familiarity with his character and policies.
Both campaigns are concentrating their efforts on key swing states as the election nears, acknowledging the potential for another tight and possibly contentious outcome. With only a few weeks remaining in what is turning out to be the shortest presidential election cycle in modern U.S. history, both Harris and Trump have limited opportunities to sway the electorate in their favor.
The 2024 presidential election continues to draw intense interest and concern from many Americans. The election’s outcome is likely to significantly impact the country’s future direction on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy.
