Hillary Clinton stunned the political world in August 2025 when she promised to personally nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he succeeded in brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Now, with those negotiations stalled and a new war with Iran consuming the White House’s attention, that explosive pledge has become one of Washington’s most talked-about unkept promises this spring.
The former secretary of state has remained silent on the matter even as Trump has emerged as the betting favorite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize — a remarkable development given that the Iran conflict, which began on Feb. 28, continues with no end in sight.
On April 30, 2026, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that 287 candidates are vying for this year’s prize: 208 individuals and 79 organizations. The committee maintains a strict 50-year secrecy policy on nominees, but the leaders of Pakistan, Israel, and Cambodia have all publicly confirmed they submitted Trump’s name before the Jan. 31, 2026 deadline.
The Clinton Factor Looms Large
What many saw as a political dare nine months ago has morphed into a conspicuous silence. Clinton’s camp has offered no comment on whether she followed through, and with Moscow and Kyiv still locked in combat and the White House’s diplomatic efforts frozen, the promise appears to have fallen by the wayside.
Trump’s own relationship with the prize has been characteristically erratic. Speaking to the Washington Examiner from Miami, Florida on March 12, he dismissed the honor entirely: “I don’t know. I’m not interested in it.” Just two weeks later, he reversed course, insisting that if he doesn’t get the Nobel, “nobody will ever get it.”
His allies have echoed the theme aggressively. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested the U.S. military should win the Peace Prize every year. In December 2025, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented her own human rights award to Trump, who called it “such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect.” Trump has said he wants to be remembered as “a great peacemaker.”
Bookmakers Bet Big on Trump
Despite the ongoing Iran war, U.K. bookmaker William Hill has made Trump the front-runner. Spokesperson Lee Phelps told reporters the president occupies a unique position in the field.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” Phelps said. He added that Trump is now priced at 3/1 — a 25 percent chance — down from a 55 percent implied probability quoted late last year.
Near Christmas, William Hill had Trump at 4/5, a strikingly bullish position before the bombs started falling. Three months ago, those odds had drifted from 7/4 to 7/2, reflecting waning confidence after the Iran conflict ignited.
Prediction markets tell a far less rosy story. As of May 1, 2026, Trump sits in third place on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market in the world, running on cryptocurrency, with just a 7 percent chance, trailing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A Crowded and Controversial Field
This year’s speculative shortlist reads like a global roll call. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is in heavy circulation. So are Pope Francis, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms volunteer aid network, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
Norwegian lawmaker Lars Haltbrekken has revealed he nominated Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski alongside Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland. “Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” Haltbrekken said. The pairing is a direct rebuke to Trump’s continued push to acquire Greenland from Denmark.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, who became Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in January 2025, declined to confirm whether Trump is among the nominees, citing the 50-year secrecy rule. But he acknowledged the field has shifted dramatically from a year ago.
Harpviken also expressed grave concern about 2023 laureate Narges Mohammadi, who suffered a heart attack inside an Iranian prison. In a development as of May 11, Iranian authorities transferred Mohammadi to a Tehran hospital and temporarily suspended her sentence on bail — though her family is demanding unconditional release, warning her condition remains critical and that any return to prison could prove fatal.
What Comes Next
The committee in Oslo will announce the 2026 winner on October 9, with the ceremony scheduled for December 10. Until then, the speculation machine — fueled by world leaders, prediction markets, and Trump’s own oscillating commentary — will only intensify.
Whether the committee in Oslo agrees with Trump’s self-assessment — and whether Hillary Clinton ever makes good on her startling pledge — may shape the final months of this year’s most unpredictable Nobel race.
