A dire ultimatum from President Trump this week brought the United States to the brink of launching a massive bombing campaign against Iran, with the commander in chief revealing he came within one hour of ordering the strike before Gulf allies persuaded him to hold off.
The president said Tuesday that Iranian leaders are “begging for a deal” to end the brutal conflict that has consumed the region for three months, but he warned reporters at the White House that American forces would unleash a fresh assault in coming days without an agreement.
“I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump said, laying bare just how close the nation came to expanding military operations.
Trump announced on May 18 that he had directed the Pentagon to cancel a strike planned for Tuesday after leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates requested restraint. While describing “serious negotiations” as ongoing, the president ordered the U.S. military to stand ready for a “full, large scale assault” at a moment’s notice.
The grinding war erupted nearly three months ago when the United States joined Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities in late February, plunging the region into chaos. More than 3,400 people have been killed across the Middle East, according to health authorities in each country. Iranian officials reported that U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,900 people inside Iran, while at least 1,400 have died in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and 15 U.S. service members have been killed.
A Ceasefire on Life Support
The shaky ceasefire brokered in mid-April has been deteriorating for weeks. Trump characterized the truce as being on “life support” last week following exchanges of fire between U.S. forces and Iranian units.
Trump has held discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chinese President Xi Jinping about the conflict in recent days. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Berlin this week, said the immediate priority of U.S.-Iran negotiations was keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, though Iran’s nuclear program remained the central issue.
Much of Iran’s enriched uranium that could potentially be used for a nuclear weapon was buried under collapsed tunnels following the February attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Fidan said. The U.S. has said it is closely monitoring any movements around the stockpile.
Tehran’s Counteroffer and Suspicions
Iranian officials say Tehran’s latest peace proposal involves ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, the exit of U.S. forces from areas close to Iran, reparations for destruction caused by the U.S.-Israeli attacks, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen funds and an end to the U.S. marine blockade. Trump has publicly dismissed the proposal as “garbage.”
Deep mistrust pervades Tehran. After American forces rescued a downed F-15E crew over Iran, Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei suggested the operation in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province may have been cover for an attempt to steal nuclear material. Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi and judiciary spokesman Kazem Gharibabadi have both warned of consequences for any new attack.
Israeli fire killed three paramedics in less than 12 hours in Lebanon, including two from the Islamic Health Authority in Haris and another from the Al-Risala Association in Tyre, according to the Lebanese Public Health Ministry.
Oil Markets Shudder as Deadlines Loom
Energy markets have whipsawed with each new Trump pronouncement. The price of U.S. crude oil jumped from $112 to about $114 per barrel on April 6 when Trump began speaking at a news conference, before easing slightly. Trump set 8 p.m. ET the following day as a final deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at that event, threatening to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure.
“We’re giving them till tomorrow, 8 o’clock Eastern time, and after that, they’re going to have no bridges. They’re going to have no power plants,” Trump warned at the time, prompting Iranian warnings of a “more severe and expansive” response.
Recent Israeli strikes have already battered Iran’s energy sector. Heavy smoke and fires were seen at the South Pars Petrochemical Complex in Asaluyeh, Bushehr province in southern Iran. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said the plant was responsible for about 50 percent of Iran’s petrochemical production. South Pars sits atop the world’s largest gas field beneath the Persian Gulf.
Political Pressure Mounts at Home
Trump faces intense political pressure to reach a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. His approval rating has plummeted as congressional elections loom in November and gas prices remain elevated.
Vice President JD Vance struck a more measured tone Tuesday, telling reporters that Washington and Tehran had made significant progress and that neither side wanted a resumption of the military campaign. Vance acknowledged difficulties in negotiating with a fractured Iranian leadership and said one objective of Trump’s policy is to prevent a nuclear arms race from spreading across the region.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine have echoed warnings that Iran faces a decisive military response if talks collapse. For now, the world is watching the clock — and waiting to see whether Trump pulls the trigger or strikes a deal.
