CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted a grim benchmark for President Donald Trump on Wednesday: a full year of consistently negative approval ratings.
On the March 11, 2026 edition of CNN News Central, anchor John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examined new data indicating Trump has been below water in polling averages for 365 straight days. The segment marked an unwelcome anniversary for the White House as Trump confronts growing political obstacles ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“Every day since March 12th, 2025, President Trump has been underwater,” Enten declared, displaying his aggregate polling data. He colorfully described the president’s predicament: “Trump has been swimming with the fishes for a year.”
The figures present a sobering outlook for Republicans. Enten’s analysis shows Trump’s net approval among independent voters has collapsed to -38 points — worse than George W. Bush’s -26 or Barack Obama’s -18 at the comparable stage of their second terms. Enten labeled Trump’s position with this key voter group “downright awful.”
A Fox News poll cited in the segment showed 60 percent of Americans overall think the Trump administration is focused on the wrong priorities. That share rises to 78 percent among independents. The seasoned data journalist did not sugarcoat the political consequence: “That’s a big frickin’ problem!”
Wednesday’s report continues a string of polling analyses Enten has done across Trump’s second term. In November 2025, he examined Trump’s approval with correspondent Elex Michaelson, looking at voter views on tariffs and economic policy. At that time, Trump’s approval among independents had already tumbled from -4 points in January to -43 points in November — a drop Enten called politically catastrophic.
The president’s signature legislative effort has also struggled to attract favorable public opinion. When Enten analyzed polling on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in June 2025, he found net approval between -19 and -29 points across several surveys. Trump signed the comprehensive tax-and-spending measure on July 4, 2025, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking Senate vote for a 51-50 passage.
Vance has stayed prominently visible throughout the administration. The vice president, who served as an Ohio senator from 2023 to 2025, has become Trump’s principal defender and policy explainer. He also became the first sitting vice president to hold the role of Republican National Committee finance chairman, taking on critical fundraising duties ahead of November’s midterms.
The political stakes are extremely high. Enten pointed out that prediction markets now give Democrats a 46 percent chance of retaking both the House and Senate — up from 21 percent at the start of 2026. Democrats are shown to have an 84 percent chance of regaining the House by itself. Such outcomes would significantly reshape the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
Not everything in the polls is negative for Trump. He retains intense support inside his own party — 86 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance, the strongest in-party approval for any 21st-century president at this stage of a second term. Bush and Obama were each at 77 percent. Over half of Republicans say they “strongly approve” of Trump, a majority neither predecessor reached.
Trump’s foreign policy ratings have been a relative bright spot. Enten reported in November that Trump’s 43 percent foreign policy approval surpassed both Bush and Obama at this point in their second terms, largely driven by his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Still, the overall trend remains worrying for Republicans. In February 2026, before Trump’s State of the Union, Enten noted the president’s net approval fell to -27 points — the worst pre-State of the Union rating of his career. His earlier lows were -15 points in both 2018 and 2019.
For CNN, the continuing polling coverage underscores its focus on data-driven political reporting. Enten, elevated to Chief Data Analyst in February 2025, has become the network’s go-to expert on electoral trends. His frequent appearances translating complex surveys into broadcast-ready analysis have made him a staple on CNN News Central’s morning show.
As Trump reaches one year of uninterrupted negative approval ratings, Republicans face the question of whether that pattern will persist through November. If it does, Enten’s work suggests the midterms could be devastating for the president’s party — turning what Trump called his “big beautiful bill” into, as Enten said, “a big, beautiful night” for Democrats.
